BarnX Daily
BarnX Daily
Feed, livestock and market intelligence for operational decisions.
Edition date
September 25, 2026
Coverage window
September 23, 2026, 04:00 PDT to September 25, 2026, 04:06 PDT (America/Vancouver)
Last verified
September 25, 2026, 04:06 PDT (America/Vancouver)
Today in one minute
- 01
Saskatchewan harvest is only 41% complete versus a 73% 10-year average; wet conditions are causing sprouting and quality loss in cereals and pulses still in the field.
- 02
The U.S. hog inventory was 74.3 million head on September 1, down 2% year over year, pointing to a smaller market-hog base even as litter productivity improved.
- 03
August U.S. cattle and hog slaughter fell 4% and 2% year over year, respectively; heavier animals only partly offset lower throughput.
- 04
U.S. ethanol output fell 6.5% week over week to 1.028 million barrels per day, reducing the near-term pace of distillers-grain generation.
- 05
U.S. broiler egg sets rose 2% year over year, but weekly chick placements were slightly lower; cumulative placements remain 2% ahead of 2025.
Editor’s view
This edition separates available tonnes from usable tonnes. Saskatchewan’s delayed, wet harvest is increasing the chance that grain enters feed channels with wider moisture and quality variation, while U.S. livestock and ethanol data point to softer near-term throughput for animals and co-products. For mills, the practical response is to verify ingredient quality and delivery timing lot by lot rather than treating broad supply totals as immediately interchangeable.
Lead development
Saskatchewan’s delayed wet harvest raises feed-grain quality and storage risk
Geography: Saskatchewan, with relevance to Prairie feed mills, livestock operations and cross-border grain buyers
- What changed
- Saskatchewan Agriculture reported harvest at 41% complete for the period ended September 21, far behind the five-year average of 82% and the 10-year average of 73%. Canola was 26% harvested, barley 61%, oats 33% and spring wheat 32%. Rain, high humidity and wet fields slowed work, while cereal and pulse crops remaining in the field showed sprouting and poor-quality risk.
- Why it matters
- A delayed harvest can compress drying, trucking and receiving demand into a shorter window. Wet or sprouted grain may move into feed channels, but moisture, test weight, germination damage and nutrient value can vary materially by origin and lot.
- Who may be affected
- Saskatchewan growers, elevators, feed mills, nutritionists, grain haulers, dairy, beef, swine and poultry operations.
- What to watch next
- Field-drying conditions, dryer and storage utilization, test-weight and moisture discounts, laboratory results and whether harvest pace recovers in the next report.
- Evidence note
- Confirmed by a primary provincial report; quality observations are regional and preliminary, not a province-wide grade forecast.
Other developments
September 1 hog inventory fell 2% year over year to 74.3 million head
Geography: United States, with implications for North American feed demand and pork supply
- What changed
- USDA estimated all U.S. hogs and pigs at 74.3 million head on September 1, down 2% from a year earlier but up 2% from June. Market hogs were 68.4 million head, also down 2% year over year. The June–August pig crop fell 2% to 34.5 million head as sow farrowings declined 3%, partly offset by a rise in pigs saved per litter to 11.96 from 11.82.
- Why it matters
- A smaller market-hog base and lower near-term farrowing intentions imply less aggregate feed demand than a year ago, though better litter productivity limits the decline.
- Who may be affected
- Swine producers, feed mills, nutritionists, pork processors, grain and soybean-meal purchasers and contract growers.
- What to watch next
- September–November farrowings, December–February intentions, slaughter weights and whether productivity continues to offset fewer sows.
- Evidence note
- Confirmed by a primary USDA survey; estimates include revisions and remain subject to future adjustment.
- Sources
August red-meat output fell 1% as cattle and hog slaughter declined
Geography: United States; relevant to North American meat supply and rendered co-product flows
- What changed
- U.S. commercial red-meat production totalled 4.10 billion lb in August, down 1% from August 2025. Cattle slaughter fell 4% to 2.24 million head while average live weight rose 28 lb to 1,441 lb; hog slaughter fell 2% to 9.92 million head while average live weight rose 4 lb to 284 lb. Beef production was down 2% and pork production down 1% year over year.
- Why it matters
- Lower slaughter counts reduce plant throughput and can constrain the generation of animal proteins and fats even when heavier animals support output per head.
- Who may be affected
- Packers, renderers, feed mills, pet-food manufacturers, livestock producers, dispatchers and protein- and fat-ingredient buyers.
- What to watch next
- Weekly slaughter schedules, plant downtime, live and dressed weights, rendered-product offers and September cold-storage movement.
- Evidence note
- Confirmed by official USDA data compiled from federal and state slaughter reporting.
- Sources
U.S. ethanol production fell to 1.028 million barrels per day
Geography: United States, especially the Midwest ethanol and distillers-grain supply chain
- What changed
- EIA reported U.S. fuel-ethanol plant production averaging 1.028 million barrels per day for the week ended September 18, down from 1.099 million barrels per day the previous week, a 6.5% decline. Midwest output fell to 962,000 barrels per day from 1.040 million. Fuel-ethanol stocks declined to 24.683 million barrels from 25.220 million.
- Why it matters
- A slower grind generally reduces the rate at which distillers grains and other ethanol co-products are produced, although plant-specific yields, maintenance and inventory determine actual offers.
- Who may be affected
- Ethanol plants, DDGS and corn-oil buyers, feed mills, cattle and dairy operations, rail and truck dispatchers.
- What to watch next
- The September 30 EIA release, maintenance duration, Midwest output recovery and basis or freight changes for nearby DDGS.
- Evidence note
- Confirmed by two official EIA weekly series; data are delayed to the week ended September 18 and may be revised.
Egg sets rose 2% while weekly chick placements edged lower
Geography: United States
- What changed
- U.S. hatcheries set 248 million broiler-type eggs during the week ended September 19, 2% more than a year earlier. Growers placed 195 million chicks for meat production, slightly below the comparable week of 2025. Cumulative placements since the week ended January 10 reached 7.26 billion, 2% above the prior-year period.
- Why it matters
- The larger cumulative placement total supports feed demand already in the production pipeline, while the latest weekly placement result tempers expectations for uninterrupted growth.
- Who may be affected
- Broiler growers, integrators, poultry-feed mills, corn and soybean-meal purchasers, hatcheries and processors.
- What to watch next
- Weekly placements, hatchability, regional disease detections and whether higher egg sets translate into larger placements three weeks later.
- Evidence note
- Confirmed by a primary USDA weekly survey; recent weeks can be revised when late data arrive.
- Sources
Market and ingredient watch
Livestock and biosecurity watch
No material new North American outbreak or movement-control update was verified within the coverage window. The fresh livestock signals are production-related: fewer U.S. hogs, lower August cattle and hog slaughter, and a broiler pipeline that remains above 2025 cumulatively. Continue routine controls for visitors, vehicles, feed deliveries and mortality handling; this edition does not present background disease risk as a new outbreak.
Mill, safety, and logistics watch
Wet-grain receiving
Saskatchewan’s delayed harvest increases the chance of clustered deliveries and wider moisture and quality variation; confirm specifications before trucks are dispatched [1].
Ingredient scheduling
Reduced ethanol and slaughter throughput can tighten nearby DDGS, rendered protein or fat offers even when national inventories remain adequate [3][5][6].
Feed safety
No material new North American feed recall or mill-safety action was verified during the coverage window.
Next to watch
September 25, 2026, 3:00 p.m. ET
USDA Cold Storage
August meat and dairy inventories will show whether lower slaughter and higher dairy output are flowing through demand channels or accumulating in storage. [7]
September 28, 2026, 4:00 p.m. ET
USDA Crop Progress
Harvest pace, moisture and condition updates will refine new-crop feed-grain availability and receiving plans. [7]
September 30, 2026, 12:00 p.m. ET
USDA Grain Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary
Stocks and production estimates could materially reset corn, wheat, barley and oat balance-sheet assumptions. [7]
September 30, 2026
EIA weekly ethanol data
The next production and inventory update will show whether the 6.5% output drop was temporary maintenance or a more persistent slowdown. [5][6]
September 30, 2026, 3:00 p.m. ET
USDA Broiler Hatchery
New egg-set and placement data will test whether the latest weekly placement softness persists. [4][7]
Source ledger
- 1
Crop Report — September 15 to 21, 2026
Saskatchewan Agriculture
https://www.saskatchewan.ca/business/agriculture-natural-resources-and-industry/agribusiness-farmers-and-ranchers/market-and-trade-statistics/crops-statistics/crop-report- Published:
- September 24, 2026
- Accessed:
- September 25, 2026, 04:06 PDT
- Type:
- Primary
- 2
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796073/hgpg0926.txt- Published:
- September 24, 2026
- Accessed:
- September 25, 2026, 04:06 PDT
- Type:
- Official data
- 3
Livestock Slaughter
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796074/lstk0926.txt- Published:
- September 24, 2026
- Accessed:
- September 25, 2026, 04:06 PDT
- Type:
- Official data
- 4
Broiler Hatchery
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/796071/brls3826.txt- Published:
- September 23, 2026
- Accessed:
- September 25, 2026, 04:06 PDT
- Type:
- Official data
- 5
Weekly Ethanol Production
U.S. Energy Information Administration
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm- Published:
- September 23, 2026; data through September 18, 2026
- Accessed:
- September 25, 2026, 04:06 PDT
- Type:
- Official data
- 6
U.S. Stocks of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products
U.S. Energy Information Administration
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm- Published:
- September 23, 2026; data through September 18, 2026
- Accessed:
- September 25, 2026, 04:06 PDT
- Type:
- Official data
- 7
NASS releases calendar — September 2026
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Calendar/print.html?month=09&view=l&year=2026- Published:
- 2026 release calendar; accessed September 25, 2026
- Accessed:
- September 25, 2026, 04:06 PDT
- Type:
- Primary